Home Affairs has just published its own numbers for the first half of the 2025-26 program year, and they are worth a close read if you are planning a Subclass 500 application. The student visa grant rate Australia recorded in the December quarter was 80.7 per cent, down from 84.9 per cent a year earlier, the flip side of what several outlets have been calling the student visa refusal rate. For prospective and current students in Brisbane, the numbers point to one thing: a complete, well-evidenced application matters more than ever. Here is what Home Affairs' own data shows, how it compares with the headlines, and how to prepare accordingly.
According to the Home Affairs Student visa and Temporary Graduate visa program report, 205,382 student visa applications were lodged in 2025-26 to 31 December 2025, an increase of 0.8 per cent on the same period the year before. Of these, 74,821 were lodged onshore, a decrease of 6.6 per cent, while 130,561 were lodged offshore, an increase of 5.6 per cent.
Over the same period, 178,194 student visas were granted, a decrease of 3.5 per cent. In the October to December 2025 quarter specifically, the report records:
These are Home Affairs' own published figures, not commentary or estimates, and they set the baseline for everything that follows.
You may have seen the student visa refusal rate described elsewhere as reaching a multi-year high, sometimes broken down by nationality. Home Affairs' own quarterly report does not publish grant or refusal rates by country, so any country-specific percentage attributed to "Home Affairs data" should be treated with caution. What the report does confirm, in its own words, is the overall movement: the quarterly grant rate fell from 84.9 per cent to 80.7 per cent, a drop of more than four percentage points, while offshore lodgements rose sharply from markets including Nepal and the Philippines and onshore lodgements fell.
Home Affairs does not publish a single stated reason for the fall, and Migration Star will not speculate on internal departmental practice. What is consistent when volumes shift like this is that assessing officers are working through a larger and more varied caseload, so the quality of the application in front of them, not just the fact that it was lodged, does more of the work. A file that is missing evidence, inconsistent, or unclear about the Genuine Student requirement gives an assessor a reason to seek more information or refuse, rather than a reason to grant quickly.
The processing time gap in this report is significant. Home Affairs states that 50 per cent of primary student visa applications lodged in Australia were decided within 134 calendar days, while 50 per cent of primary applications lodged outside Australia were decided within just 18 calendar days.
"50 per cent of student PRIMARY visa applications lodged in Australia were decided within 134 calendar days and 50 per cent of PRIMARY visa applications lodged outside Australia were decided within 18 calendar days," the Home Affairs report states.
For an onshore applicant in Brisbane, that is a difference measured in months, not weeks. If you are planning a course change, a new intake, or a second student visa, this median should shape when you lodge, not just what you lodge. Subject to meeting all other criteria, lodging earlier and with a complete file gives Home Affairs more runway to make a timely decision before your current visa or bridging arrangement is affected.
The Genuine Student requirement, confirmed on the current Home Affairs Subclass 500 page, asks applicants to answer a set of free-text questions, each limited to 150 words, addressing:
A decision-ready Subclass 500 file typically also includes evidence of sufficient funds, English language ability where required, current Overseas Student Health Cover, and a Confirmation of Enrolment that matches the course and provider named throughout the application. Home Affairs is explicit that future intentions regarding permanent residence do not count against an applicant, so there is no need to understate genuine long-term interest in Australia. What matters is that every answer is specific, consistent with the supporting documents, and free of generic or copy-pasted wording.
With an onshore median of 134 days, an applicant targeting a November 2026 or February 2027 course start in Brisbane should be thinking now about when to lodge, not waiting until the offer letter and Confirmation of Enrolment are the only pieces in hand. A few practical points to plan around:
None of this guarantees a particular outcome. Every Subclass 500 application is assessed on its own facts, and migration outcomes depend on individual circumstances subject to Department requirements.
A second set of eyes on a student visa file, before it is submitted, is one of the most useful steps an applicant can take in a year where the grant rate has moved against them. Migration Star reviews Genuine Student answers for consistency with supporting documents, checks that funds and OSHC evidence line up with the course length and cost, and flags any gaps that could slow a decision down or invite a request for more information.
This kind of review will not change what the data shows about grant rates or processing times, and it does not promise a particular result. What it does is make sure the application in front of the assessing officer is as clear and complete as it can be, which is the one part of the process an applicant genuinely controls.
Migration Star is a Brisbane-based registered migration practice led by principal agent Rohit Sharma, MARA No. 1797395. We help prospective and current students prepare Subclass 500 applications that are complete, well-evidenced, and aligned with the Genuine Student requirement before they are lodged. If you are planning a course change, a new intake, or a second student visa and want your file reviewed against the latest Home Affairs data, book a free 15-minute Migration Eligibility Assessment to talk through your circumstances.
Free 15-minute Migration Eligibility Assessment: https://meetings-ap1.hubspot.com/rohit-sharma/15-mins-meeting
30-minute Migration Consultation (AUD 165): https://meetings-ap1.hubspot.com/rohit-sharma
Phone: 07 3519 5619
Address: Level 2, 8 Clunies Ross Court, Eight Mile Plains QLD 4113
Related reading: Second Student Visa Australia Onshore: Lodgement Order Rule and Subclass 485 Temporary Graduate Visa: 2026-27 Guide. You can also read more about our visa services.
Information current as at 17/09/2026. Migration Star is a registered migration practice. Principal agent Rohit Sharma, MARA No. 1797395. Migration outcomes depend on individual circumstances. Visa criteria may change. This article is general information only and does not constitute migration advice. For advice on your specific situation, book a consultation at migrationstar.com.au.
Migration Star | MARA No. 1797395 | migrationstar.com.au | 07 3519 5619